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In 2025, the new round of "state subsidy" policy will be further expanded. In addition to continuing to provide subsidies for electronic products such as TVs and PCs, starting from January 20, products such as mobile phones, tablets, and smart watches will also be included in the scope of subsidies. As one of the core components of these terminal devices, display panels are expected to benefit from increased demand, driving up shipments and prices.

Smartphones and tablets enter the "national subsidy" for the first time

Taking mobile phone products as an example, as of 11 o'clock on January 23, JD.com has launched new digital product purchase subsidies in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Hainan, Chongqing, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Hubei, Hunan, Xiamen, Shaanxi, Yunnan, Jilin, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Heilongjiang and other places, and other city activities are also being launched.

JD.com data shows that as of 12:00 on January 20, within 12 hours of the first day when the national subsidy policy went live, mobile phone sales in provinces and cities where the subsidy policy went live increased by 200% month-on-month, tablet sales increased by 300% month-on-month, and smart children's watch sales increased by 100% month-on-month. This data shows that the subsidy policy has a very significant driving effect on consumer electronics products. With subsidies The continued advancement of policies is expected to further stimulate the growth of the consumer electronics market and drive more consumers to purchase related products.

According to the "national subsidy" policy for mobile phones, individual consumers who purchase mobile phones priced at no more than 6,000 yuan can enjoy a subsidy of up to 500 yuan, with the subsidy amount being 15% of the sales price. Major mobile phone manufacturers have quickly adjusted product prices to compete for state subsidy dividends. This policy is an important signal for panel manufacturers, stimulating demand for small and medium-sized OLED and LCD panels.

As mobile phone products are included in the "national subsidy" policy, the shipment growth of the small-size panel market is expected to accelerate.

TrendForce pointed out that AMOLED panels have become the mainstream display technology for smartphones, and their penetration rate will increase by 2% to 3% every year, and is expected to reach 68% by 2028. As major mobile phone brands gradually increase the use of AMOLED mobile phone panels, shipments are expected to exceed 870 million units in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 3.2%.

Overall, the intensified expansion of the "state subsidy" policy has brought new growth opportunities to the panel industry. In particular, the market demand for AMOLED panels will continue to rise, promoting the accelerated recovery of the panel industry.

The TV panel market is "full of spring"

Focusing on the TV panel market, since 2024, with the implementation of the trade-in policy, market demand has increased significantly.

According to a TrendForce survey, global TV brand shipments reached 52.33 million units in the third quarter of 2024, a quarterly increase of 9.6% and an annual increase of 0.5%. Global TV demand is expected to increase by another 4.2% quarter to quarter to 54.5 million units in the fourth quarter, an annual increase of 2.2%.

Full-year shipments in 2024 are expected to reach 197.51 million units, an annual increase of 1.1%, ending five consecutive years of declining shipments.

TrendForce also pointed out that China’s trade-in subsidies for home appliances will boost the sales of large-size Mini LED TVs in 2024, and will also push brand shipments to 6.75 million units, an annual increase of 65% and an increase of 5.4% from the previous estimate.

After the traditional sales peak season at the end of 2024, the TV market once again welcomed the support of the "national subsidy" policy, allowing large-size panels to regain their vitality in the traditional sales off-season in the first quarter of 2025.

Fan Boyu, vice president of research at TrendForce, said that in January, the domestic trade-in policy will continue until 2025, and the demand for TV stocking is stable, especially the demand for super-large-size panels. With the demand for TV panels booming and recent reports that there is a gap in polarizing plate supply capacity, panel manufacturers will have more confidence to increase TV panel prices.

TrendForce currently predicts that TV panel prices will rise in January: 32-inch and 43-inch panel prices will increase by US$1, 50-inch panel prices will remain the same, and 55-inch panel prices will remain the same. The price of large-size panels increased by US$1; due to better demand, the price of 65-inch panels increased by US$2, the price of 75-inch panels increased by US$3, and the price of 85-inch panels increased by US$4.

Regarding the increase in panel prices, a person from BOE’s investor relations department said that there was indeed a price increase in LCD TV panels in January. Although the first quarter is the traditional off-season, the recent continuation of the national subsidy policy has boosted consumer demand, and some brands have also taken measures to stock up in advance. These factors indicate that panel manufacturers and downstream brands are optimistic about future end market demand, thus driving up panel prices.

The operating conditions of many panel companies will improve in 2024

Driven by the "old for new" and consumption-promoting policies, the consumer electronics industry has gradually recovered, driving the upstream panel industry to pick up. Coupled with the strategies adopted by panel manufacturers to control production and stabilize prices in early 2024, panel prices stabilized and rebounded, and the performance of many companies improved significantly.

BOE is expected to turn a profit in 2024 after deducting non-net profit losses for two consecutive years. The company expects the full-year net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies to reach 5.2 billion to 5.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 104% to 116%.

As for the reasons for the expected increase in performance in 2024, BOE said that in terms of LCD, due to the supply side's insistence on on-demand production, the strong stimulation of the demand side's "old-for-new" policy, and the expansion of innovative applications, major application areas have shown structural improvements. TV applications have grown significantly year-on-year. The mainland Chinese market will resume growth in the second half of 2024, with the degree of large-size reaching a new high. Driven by sports events and promotions, overseas market demand also shows a positive trend, and product prices fluctuate upward throughout the year.

Shenzhen Tianma released its 2024 performance forecast on the evening of January 22. It is expected that the net profit loss attributable to shareholders of the parent company in 2024 will be 650 million to 750 million yuan, which is significantly reduced compared with the loss of 2.098 billion yuan in the same period last year.

In 2024, the profitability of Shentianma's consumer display business will improve significantly. Thanks to the recovery in downstream demand, the profitability of the smartphone display business continues to improve. The shipments of flexible AMOLED mobile phone display products have increased year-on-year, and the revenue scale has further expanded. At the same time, the profit level of Wuhan AMOLED production line has improved significantly year-on-year.

Hehui Optoelectronics expects a net profit loss attributable to the parent company in 2024 of approximately 2.514 billion yuan, a decrease of 731 million yuan from the loss in the same period last year, an improvement of 22.52%. The company maintains its first-mover advantage in fields such as tablets/laptops and vehicle-mounted displays, and its product shipments have grown significantly, further consolidating its position in the field of medium and large-sized AMOLED displays.

Regarding the main factors affecting operating performance, Hehui Optoelectronics stated that in 2024, the company will adhere to R&D and innovation and is committed to AMO The continuous breakthroughs in LED cutting-edge technology have enabled the implementation of many cutting-edge new technologies such as Hybrid, Tandem, and high-frequency PWM dimming, and mass-produced a number of new products in various application fields.

In addition, Longteng Optoelectronics predicts that the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in 2024 will be -205 million yuan to -175 million yuan. Compared with the same period last year, the loss will decrease by 73.4165 million yuan to 103.4165 million yuan, and the year-on-year loss reduction range will be 26.37% to 37.14%.

In summary, BOE is expected to turn losses into profits, while Shentianma and Hehui Optoelectronics have achieved improvements in profitability in consumer display business and AMOLED technology. Although some companies are still facing losses, such as Shentianma and Longteng Optoelectronics, the extent of losses has been significantly reduced, showing the industry's recovery momentum and the positive impact of technological innovation.

The competitive landscape of the panel industry is changing quietly

With the promotion of the "national subsidy" policy, the competitive landscape of the panel industry is gradually evolving. In recent years, Korean manufacturers have gradually reduced their investment in the LCD field, and major global The large-size LCD panel market is further concentrated on mainland Chinese manufacturers. In this context, companies in the industry continue to enhance their competitiveness through mergers, acquisitions and integration.

In September 2024, TCL CSOT announced that it would spend 10.8 billion yuan to acquire 80% of the LGD Guangzhou 8.5-generation LCD panel factory and 100% of the supporting module factory. In January 2025, TCL CSOT acquired the remaining 20% equity of LGDCA for RMB 2.615 billion, completing full control. The total investment in this acquisition was RMB 13.415 billion.

According to TrendForce's analysis, after the merger is completed, TCL CSOT will occupy more than a quarter of the supply share of the TV panel market and push the market share of the top three panel manufacturers to close to 70%. In addition, TCL CSOT's market share in LCD large-generation line production capacity area will exceed 20% in one fell swoop, ranking second in the industry.

At the same time, with the continuous breakthroughs in new display technologies such as OLED, Micro LED, and Mini LED, the competitive landscape of the panel industry is accelerating its transformation from the traditional liquid crystal display field to high-end self-luminous display technology.

For example, BOE has made significant progress in OLED and MLED technology. It emphasized in its 2024 performance forecast that the company's flexible AMOLED shipments throughout the year were approximately 140 million pieces, continuing to grow year-on-year. In addition, BOE recently told investors that the company’s medium-sized 8.6th-generation AMOLED production line project is expected to achieve mass production by the end of 2026.

In terms of MLED business, BOE released in September 2024 The first P0.3 Micro LED automotive display product, and fully launched the MLED Zhuhai project. In December of the same year, it provided a 13.48-inch Mini LED backlight display for the flagship model of Hongqi's "Guoya" series, marking the first time its Mini LED technology has been mass-produced for vehicle-mounted displays.

TCL Huaxing adopts a dual strategy of MLED and OLED. In terms of OLED, TCL Huaxing focuses on inkjet printing OLED technology and announced the realization of mass production on November 16, 2024, launching the world's highest brightness printed QD-EL laptop screen and the first mass-produced printed OLED 4K dedicated display screen. In the field of Mini LED, TCL Huaxing has been laying out its layout since 2017 and has multiple Mini LED backlight display laboratories.

Overall, the panel industry is in a critical transformation period of market integration and technological innovation. Manufacturers in the industry are enhancing their market competitiveness through mergers, acquisitions and integration. At the same time, manufacturers are increasing investment in new technologies such as OLED, Micro LED, and Mini LED to promote competition in the high-end display market. With the advancement of technological breakthroughs, the panel industry is gradually developing towards high-end and diversified directions.

Summary

The new round of "national subsidy" policy in 2025 has brought new development opportunities to the panel industry, promoting demand growth, price recovery and technological innovation. With the support of policies, the panel industry is expected to achieve a comprehensive recovery and move towards a new stage of high-quality development.

However, the industry also needs to be alert to potential risks such as overcapacity and uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment. In the future, panel companies should focus on technological innovation and market expansion, and strengthen cooperation with upstream and downstream companies to achieve sustainable development.

Against this background, on February 26 and 27, 2025, TrendForce’s LEDinside and WitsVie w will hold the two-day 2025 TrendForce New Display Industry Seminar at the JW Marriott Hotel Shenzhen.

This seminar will become an important platform for industry experts and senior analysts to discuss the latest market conditions and development trends of the micro, small, medium and ultra-large display industry. It is expected to inject new perspectives and motivation into the development of the panel industry and further help the display industry move into the future.