The attributes of the LED industry are consistent with those of the silicon semiconductor industry
LED is a compound semiconductor, and its technical model and business model are consistent with those of silicon semiconductors, so the industry is also consistent with Moore's Law. Precisely because of the consistency of industry attributes, the future development trend of the LED industry can be deduced from the development path of integrated circuits.
The MOCVD industry is the commanding heights of the entire industry chain
Because of its very high technical barriers, the MOCVD industry is highly concentrated. Two companies monopolize nearly 90% of the global market share. The impact of the MOCVD industry on the industrial chain can be seen in the impact of integrated circuit equipment on the industrial chain. The market space and profitability of the midstream and downstream industries in the industrial chain will be affected by the progress of MOCVD technology improvement. In this field, it will still be very difficult for Chinese companies to occupy a certain market share in the future.
The LED chip manufacturing industry is in the transition from a growth stage to a mature stage
The life cycle of the LED chip manufacturing industry is in a growth stageAs it transitions to a mature stage, the industry will face an increase in industry concentration in the future, and companies with competitive strength will benefit from this stage. If the history of the development of the silicon diode industry is used as a blueprint, once the LED chip manufacturing industry enters a mature stage, its future profitability will be closer to the industry average.
The LED packaging industry will undergo major changes in the future
Semiconductor packaging technology is undergoing rapid changes. With the application of wafer-level packaging and other technologies in the LED field, the market space of the LED packaging industry will be squeezed. In the future, a large number of companies will exit the industry, but we should not be pessimistic about this industry. Many companies will actively choose to transform, and there will definitely be more investment opportunities.
The LED application industry is at the other end of the smile curve
In the LED industry chain, MOCVD is undoubtedly at the left end of the smile curve, while the LED application industry is at the right end of the smile curve because of its customer resources. At present, LED applications are mainly in the fields of backlight, display screen and lighting. Among them, the lighting field has the broadest market space and is generally optimistic about the market. As LED replaces traditional lighting, the properties of the lighting industry will change, and the industryConcentration will increase moderately in the future, which provides an opportunity for rapid development for competitive and innovative companies.
ANNA