TrendForce: It is estimated that the demand for secondary replacement of LED light sources and lamps in 2024 will reach 5.8 billion units

According to the latest estimates from TrendForce, approximately 5.8 billion LED light sources and lamps will gradually reach the limit of their service life and be retired in 2024. This will bring considerable demand for secondary replacement, which will help the LED lighting market reverse its decline and drive the overall LED lighting demand to 13.4 billion.

Among the lamps in normal use around the world in 2023, the proportion of lamps using LED as the light source has reached about 70%, and the use scenarios of traditional lamps that can be replaced by LEDs are becoming increasingly limited. There are only some scenes with special requirements, and there are other non-LED lighting fixtures. The marginal cost of replacing non-LED lighting with LED lighting continues to rise, and the one-time replacement process may have been completed. Although the shipment volume of LED lighting products will decline in 2023, the total volume has not decreased sharply. TrendForce believes that the main reason is that the secondary replacement demand has succeeded the primary replacement demand and has begun to become a key driving force supporting the LED lighting market.

The demand for secondary replacement of LED lighting will reach its peak in 2025~2028

Generally speaking, the service life of LEDs is expected to be about 25,000~40,000 hours, compared with the actual use time of 7~10 years. According to research by TrendForce, LED lamps that were put into service from 2014 to 2016 have gradually reached their life limit starting in 2023, driving the demand for secondary replacement to increase year by year, and are expected to become the main driving force for the growth of the lighting market in the next five years. By 2025, secondary replacement demand will exceed primary replacement and new installation demand, becoming a key force in the LED lighting market; and by 2028, approximately 78% of LED lighting demand will come from secondary replacement.

Overall, despite the huge demand for secondary replacement of LED lighting, there are still difficulties in actual implementation. First of all, home users lack awareness of replacement, including the concept of healthy lighting and environmental awareness, and some users in need have a wait-and-see attitude. Secondly, some countries have insufficient understanding of light science literacy and common sense issues about the light environment, and fail to fully realize the benefits of light science and technology. future commercial value and artistic value. Finally, the products on the market are mixed, as consumers still give priority to price rather than product quality. The subsequent lighting market has gradually entered a stable cyclical development stage. In order to attract consumers' willingness to repurchase, the importance of brand is highlighted. (Source: TrendForce Consulting)

TrendForce 2024 Global LED Lighting Market Analysis Report-1H24

Publication date: February 1, 2024; July 31, 2024
Language: Traditional Chinese / English
Format: PDF and EXCEL
Number of pages: 90-100 (each time)