TrendForce: Global laptop shipments are expected to be revised down to a year-on-year decrease of 14.8% in 2026

According to TrendForce’s latest laptop industry survey, global laptop shipments have shown further signs of weakening recently. Under the dual influence of expected terminal consumption momentum to slow down and supply chain costs to continue to rise, TrendForce officially updated its full-year laptop shipment forecast for 2026, revised down from an annual decrease of 9.2% to an annual decrease of 14.8%, to reflect that the industry has entered a deeper adjustment stage.

From the demand side, the recovery momentum of the consumer market is not as strong as expected. Weak demand is not only affected by the poor overall environment, but also price factors that weaken purchasing intentions. As the prices of key components continue to rise, notebook brands will gradually reflect costs into the terminal selling price in order to maintain the existing gross profit structure. It is also expected that there may be a second or even multiple price increases in the next few quarters. As the upward trend in selling prices continues, consumers' purchasing decisions have become more conservative and wait-and-see sentiment has increased, which will further suppress actual shipment momentum.

The supply side is also under pressure simultaneously. In addition to the tightening of memory supply that has pushed up overall costs, adjustments to CPU quotations and changes in supply rhythm have all led to a significant deterioration in the cost structure of the entire machine. For laptop brands, it is difficult to avoid raising terminal prices while maintaining existing profit levels. However, this will also simultaneously suppress consumers' willingness to purchase, creating a negative cycle of demand and price.

In addition, the rapid expansion of AI computing demands is reshaping semiconductor resource allocation. Advanced process and packaging production capacity gives priority to the supply of high-performance computing products, thus crowding out some mainstream and entry-level processors. This structural shift not only affects costs, but also reduces supply stability and expands brand uncertainty in product planning and shipment rhythm.

In 2026, the global laptop market will face increased structural pressure, and the differentiation trend among brands will become more obvious. The top brands can still maintain relative stability in resource acquisition and cost control by virtue of their scale advantages and long-term supply chain partnerships. Apple recently launched a low-end new machine, the MacBook Neo. The key factors include its self-developed Apple Silicon chip to reduce dependence on external CPU suppliers, increase the flexibility of production capacity allocation and cost negotiation, and Apple product specifications are highly standardized, the number of projects initiated is streamlined, and the memory capacity and module configuration are centralized, which is conducive to enlarging the purchase volume and negotiating long-term contracts. TrendForce considers Apple's advantages such as downward product price bands, proactive pricing strategies, and high supply chain control, and predicts that its notebook shipments will buck the trend and increase by 7.7% annually in 2026.

In comparison, the pressure faced by small and medium-sized brands has increased significantly. Not only do they lack room for negotiation on procurement costs, but they are also more susceptible to material shortages and delivery fluctuations, which in turn affects shipment performance.

Overall, the global laptop industry is currently facing three major pressures: weak demand, rising costs and supply restructuring. TrendForce believes that as price trends have not yet been effectively alleviated and terminal demand lacks clear momentum for recovery, the global laptop market will continue to be under pressure in 2026, and it cannot rule out the possibility of further declines in shipments in the short term. (Text: TrendForce)

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