Six major economic ministries and commissions release key signals for 2026

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other ministries have successively held working meetings to deploy key tasks in the economic field in 2026. 2026 is the first year of the "15th Five-Year Plan". 

Relevant ministries and commissions have released four major policy signals, including stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, supporting technological innovation, and stabilizing the property market and stock market, to promote stable economic growth in 2026 and achieve a good start to the "15th Five-Year Plan". It is particularly worth mentioning that various ministries and commissions are still actively promoting policies to achieve a smooth start in 2026. Since the end of December 2025, the 2026 project list and investment plan have been issued in advance, some first-tier cities have relaxed purchase restrictions, new local bonds and chemical bonds have begun to be issued in 2026, the "state subsidy" policy has been fully launched, and a number of pragmatic policies have been implemented one after another. Active macro policies are driven forward The National Development and Reform Work Conference pointed out that it is necessary to strengthen economic monitoring and early warning analysis, improve the policy toolbox, strengthen expectation management, do a good job in policy connection and work connection in 2025 and 2026, promote policy forward, and achieve a good start. The People's Bank of China work conference pointed out that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. 

The promotion of high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery will be an important consideration of monetary policy, and various monetary policy tools such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently to maintain sufficient liquidity, maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, guide the reasonable growth of financial aggregates, and ensure the growth of credit supply to match the expected goals of economic growth and overall price levels. Smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism and give full play to the guidance of policy interest rates. We will effectively implement and supervise interest rate policies and promote the low-cost operation of comprehensive social financing. Maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and average level and prevent the risk of exchange rate overshooting. Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai International, said that as the first year of the "15th Five-Year Plan", the GDP growth target in 2026 is expected to continue to be set at around 5%. The deficit rate in 2026 is expected to remain unchanged at 4% in 2025, with new special bonds increasing to 4.8 trillion yuan. Ultra-long-term special government bonds are expected to remain around 1.8 trillion yuan. The broad deficit scale will increase from 11.86 trillion yuan in 2025 to around 12.45 trillion yuan in 2026, corresponding to an increase in the broad deficit rate from 8.4% to 8.5%. The current weighted average deposit reserve ratio of China's financial institutions is 6.2%, which is only 120 BP away from the implicit lower limit of 5%. 

It is expected that the reserve requirement ratio will be reduced by 25 to 50 BP throughout 2026. Taking into account factors such as low net interest margins of commercial banks and deposit relocation, it is expected that the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, the most important policy interest rate, will be reduced by 10 to 20 BP in 2026. Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that the economic growth rate in 2025 is expected to be around 5%, and the economic growth rate in 2026 is expected to be around 4.9%. Fiscal expenditure will maintain a moderate expansion in 2026, and will continue to tilt towards new driving forces such as "new infrastructure", technological innovation, green and low carbon, while increasing expenditures in areas such as basic people's livelihood services, and local governments. With the steady progress of debt reduction, the financial resources of local governments will also improve; the monetary policy will continue to be "moderately loose" and emphasize the flexible use of a variety of tools to reduce social financing costs. There is still room for lowering reserve requirements and interest rates. The support and boosting effect of the policy level on the economy will continue, and it is expected to promote GDP growth of about 4.9% year-on-year in 2026. Boost consumption and stabilize investment The National Development and Reform Work Conference pointed out that to boost consumption, we need to adopt practical and new strategies, optimize the implementation of the trade-in policy for consumer goods, actively expand service consumption, accelerate the cleanup of unreasonable restrictive measures in the consumption field, and promote the quality and upgrading of consumer supply. Take multiple measures to promote investment to stop falling and stabilize, give full play to the role of various types of government investment funds such as "double construction" and new local government special bonds, appropriately increase the scale of investment within the central budget, continue to play the role of new policy financial instruments, continuously improve investment efficiency, and plan and implement major engineering projects for the "15th Five-Year Plan". 

The National Financial Work Conference pointed out that domestic demand should be the mainstay and support the construction of a strong domestic market. Vigorously boost consumption and implement special actions to boost consumption. Actively expand effective investment and increase investment in key areas such as new productivity and comprehensive development of people. Accelerate the construction of a unified national market and standardize tax incentives and financial subsidy policies. The National Business Work Conference pointed out that special actions to boost consumption will be implemented to create "Buy in China" brands. Accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, optimize the implementation of the trade-in policy for consumer goods, and promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption. Develop digital consumption, green consumption, and healthy consumption to stimulate the consumption vitality of sinking markets. National Housing and Urban-Rural Development